Lecture: Infectious disease epidemiology and mathematical models in the context of Public Health

Mathematical models 1 Chapters:
  • Infectious diseases - how they emerge and disappear
  • SARS 2002/2003: why modeling, and what is a mathematical model?
  • Deterministic models: SIR-model, basic reproduction number R0
  • Vaccination: final size of an epidemic, critical vaccination coverage
  • SIR, add-ons: extending SIR to SEIR, SEIRS, etc
  • Interventions: pandemic influenza preparedness planning using InfluSim
  • Stochastic Models: from theory to reality, the epidemic as a random event
  • "Super-"reality: The role of superspreaders

Excercises:
  • Design a mathematical model yourself: the bacterial growth curve
  • Homemade solution: solve the model numerically (bacterial growth curve)
  • Be professional: simulate an epidemic with professional algorithms
  • Harvest: proportion of susceptibles after an epidemic infection
  • Think longterm: the influence of time and demography
  • Predict: how many newborns to vaccinate? (critical vaccination coverage)
  • Design: specific models for specific diseases (Extend SIR to SEIR, SEIRS...)
  • Be an intervention planner: control an influenza pandemic (InfluSim)


Mathematical models 2
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